I predicted sometimes last year before the scuttled Adamawa by election that Nuhu Ribadu, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Governorship candidate in Adamawa State, will appreciate a second position if he contested the Gubernatorial election. Trust my
ever loyal PDP friends they gave me several knocks. Now I walk taller, Ribadu actually came third in the just concluded election. I didn’t just spend one year in the Land of Beauty for nothing!
Again my PDP friends got their steam after I erroneously give victory to Kayode Fayemi in Ekiti. I had to keep quiet and watch because I know very little about Ekiti(visiting only on three occasions). My data disappointed me thoroughly. I didn’t factor in “rigging”. I learn my lessons the hard way.
When it was time for Osun Gubernatorial election in August last year, my PDP friends told me to keep quiet which I characteristically did. I told those who cared to listen that Rauf Aregbesola the All Progressives Congress(APC) candidate and incumbent governor of the state, will win the election. I predicted Iyiola Omisore the PDP candidate to win in Ife areas. Lo! I turned out to be the case. The rest, as the British say, is history.
It was the turn of the presidential election. I wrote severally on my blog / why GMB’s handlers
have done a better job than the PDP. I also wrote on this page several reasons President Jonathan will lose the Presidential election.
My PDP friends relied only on one thing-power of incumbency. This is a myth I dispelled in my article WHO WILL SAVE THIS SHIP and
HEAVEN WILL NOT FALL. You can read both on my blog / or on my facebook wall.
Even after the election shifted from February 14 to March 28, 2015. I ran my research data seven times more, lo, General Muhammadu Buhari (GMB) still won!
The only advantage I insist, the postponement confer was the monetary inducement of voters in the South West of Nigeria considering the decisive role of money. Save for this, GMB wins, rigging or no rigging!
The results for the presidential election was released on 31 March, once more I was vindicated.
Lagos is a state I have lived in all my life. The most ridiculous PDP optimists came up with several reasons why PDP will win in Lagos. I simply told a group of friends at my office that
the political risk data at my disposal is quite unclear and so unreliable. I told them that I expect a keen contest but Akinwunmi Ambode the APC Governorship candidate will win. This was after the infamous Oba of Lagos’ threat against non-indigenes of the state which caused much uproar. I did not say more other than the fact that PDP has several unexplained factors that work against it in Lagos!
Those were how far my analyses of the Nigerian elections went. I still love my PDP friends, though I have been severally accused
of partisanship, particularly for the APC. To this I laughed it off. I only analyse based on data at my disposal not on emotions!